Unusual foreign trade surplus surprises analysts

Unusual foreign trade surplus surprises analysts

Both Slovakia's exports and imports rose more significantly on an annual basis in December than for any month since January 2019, with foreign trade posting a surplus in December for the first time since 2015, the Statistics Office reported on Monday. Overall exports in December reached €6.5 billion, up by 12.5 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, overall imports rose for the second consecutive month, by 9.6 percent y-o-y in December to €6.3 billion. The surplus in December amounted to €158.7 million, which was less than in previous months, but still an unusually high figure for December - in fact, the highest since December 2010. Wood & Company analyst Eva Sadovská pointed out that car exports were up by 16.2 percent year-on-year in December and amounted to as much as two thirds of Slovakia's overall exports.

"Despite the effects of the second wave of the pandemic in Europe on industry being limited, we expect that it will nevertheless hamper the process of revival, and so it's also likely to affect foreign-trade figures at the beginning of the year. It can't be ruled out that concerns about a possible deterioration of the situation (and impossibility of production at the beginning of the year) led to some industries deciding to produce a surplus for stocks," said UniCredit Bank's Czech Republic and Slovakia analyst Ľubomír Koršňák , adding that a deceleration is to be expected in early 2021, in line with a deteriorating sentiment in industry. Nevertheless, he doesn't expect such plunges as seen in the spring of 2020, if industrial production isn't halted altogether and/or borders aren't closed.


Anca Dragu, Photo: TASR

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