The record February foreign trade surplus was supported exclusively by lower imports, UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak said, commenting on the February foreign trade data published by the Slovak Statistics Office on Tuesday.
"The reason for the record surpluses in foreign trade in recent months is mainly due to lower imports. These were pushed down again in February mainly by lower imports of fuels and lubricants, only partly due to price effects. In contrast, exports didn't contribute to the widening of the foreign trade surpluses in February," he stated.
According to Korsnak, after a slight growth at the turn of the year, they were declining again. "Although they are also pushed down by falling export prices, even after adjusting for this effect, we first recorded a year-on-year decline in exports in February, that is exports were also falling in real terms. The decline in exports was mainly driven by its key category of machinery and transport equipment," he pointed out.
Matej Hornak, an analyst at Slovenska sporitelna bank, predicts that export activity will still be under pressure in the first three quarters of this year, but he expects a more significant recovery in foreign trade at the end of this year.
"The next development of inflation will be important in the coming months, as it will influence the central bank's actions and ultimately the cost of financing for businesses. Positive news is the decline in prices on commodity markets (e.g. energy) or transport prices, but we're still seeing increased uncertainty in several areas," added Hornak.
The Statistics Office has reported that Slovakia's foreign-trade balance in February 2024 recorded a surplus of €649.4 million, an increase of €424 million year-on-year. The foreign-trade balance for January-February 2024 recorded a surplus of €1.2 billion.
(TASR)
